Renewable energy will take the lead in the UK power mix for the first full year in 2024, according to an analysis by global energy think tank Ember. This means 2024 will be the first full year where UK low-carbon renewable sources like wind, solar, and hydropower generated more electricity than fossil fuels. This milestone marks a significant shift in the energy landscape, with wind generation likely to be the country’s largest power source, edging out gas.
Elaborating further on the report, in 2024, wind, solar, and hydropower generated 37% of the UK’s electricity (103 TWh), compared to 35% (97 TWh) from fossil fuels. This marked a significant leap from 2021 when fossil fuels produced 46% of electricity and renewables just 27%.
Fossil Fuels Face Sharp Decline
The Ember report showcased record-low power generation from fossil fuel, which fell by two-thirds since 2000. The decline in fossil fuel reliance was driven by a combination of increased renewable capacity, lower electricity demand, and cheaper imports.
Gas power, which accounted for 34% of electricity in 2023, dropped to 30% in 2024—the lowest level since 1996. This represents a 13% decline (13 TWh) year-on-year, marking one of the largest falls outside of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Most significantly, the UK’s coal phaseout also played a critical role. The country closed its last coal-fired power plant in 2024, joining the ranks of one-third of OECD nations now coal-free. The Ember study highlighted the rapid decline of coal power since 2012, culminating in zero coal generation by October 2024.
The Sad Tale of Crumbling Coal
UK’s Department of Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) issued a Statistical Release on September 26, 2024, highlighting the downfall of coal throughout the second quarter of this year.
- In Q2 2024, overall coal production in the UK fell to only 19,000 tonnes. This marks an 84% decrease compared to the same period in 2023.
With the closure of the last major surface mine, Ffos-Y-Fran, at the end of November 2023, there’s now no large-scale surface mining left in the UK. Despite a slight rise in coal demand by electricity generators—up 6.6% from the previous year to 135,000 tons—coal still accounted for less than 1% of the UK’s electricity generation during this period.
Meanwhile, coal imports also saw a sharp decline, dropping to 315,000 tons, the lowest level since the 1970s. This is a 55% decrease compared to the same quarter in 2023.
Coal Consumption: Energy Trends
Source: DESNZ
Gusts of Change: Wind Takes the Top Spot
Moving on, wind power achieved a major milestone in the UK’s energy transformation and it is about to overtake gas as the country’s largest power source.
In 2024, wind generated 29% of the UK’s electricity (82 TWh) and gas 30% (85 TWh). With only a 1% difference between the two sources, the race is too close to call, with final totals depending on December’s weather conditions, wind speeds, and power demand.
Onshore Winds Surge, Offshore Winds Slow
The growth in wind power generation has been steady, with a 1.5% increase in total output in 2024, largely driven by an expansion of onshore wind capacity. Onshore wind generation saw a 23% rise in the first three quarters of the year, marking the second-largest growth since 2017.
New additions, such as the 443 MW Viking Wind Farm on the Shetland Islands, have contributed to this surge. Furthermore, the lifting of the onshore wind ban in England in July 2024 is expected to further accelerate capacity expansion.
- In total, 590 MW of new onshore wind capacity has been added in 2024, with an additional 78 MW expected by the end of the year.
While onshore wind is seeing rapid growth, offshore wind has experienced a slower pace in 2024. No new offshore projects have come online this year, though partial developments like Dogger Bank, Neart na Gaoithe, and Moray West are already feeding power into the grid.
However, the future of offshore wind is not gloomy at all. Several large offshore wind farms of 3.8 GW of combined capacity are in the pipeline for completion between 2025 and 2026. This shows offshore wind will have a significant impact on the UK’s energy mix in the coming years.
Change in renewable generation and capacity between Q2 2023 and Q2 2024
Source: DESNZ
Solar Dips, Hydro Soars: A Mixed Bag for Renewables
DENZ report revealed that solar generation saw a 9.5% drop, despite adding 2.1 GW of new capacity, primarily due to a 20% decrease in average sun hours compared to last year. Among the new installations, 1.4 GW came from solar PV, including several new sites like Litchardon Cross, Gorse Lane, Sutton Bridge, Burwell, Porth Wen, and Thaxted.
On the other hand, hydro generation surged by 38% due to a significant increase in rainfall, which was the highest for Q2 since 2016.
In bioenergy, overall generation rose by 29%, despite no new capacity. Plant biomass alone saw a 47% increase, recovering from low levels in the previous year due to plant outages.
A Low-Carbon Future Takes Shape Amid Challenges
The UK is set to achieve 95% low-carbon electricity by 2030, with wind, solar, and hydropower playing a key role. However, the report has highlighted a major concern over biomass carbon emissions and its reliance on imports that might affect this shift.
Similarly, challenges in the wind sector like grid limitations and payment cutdowns (e.g. to the Viking Wind Farm) remain. These issues hinder wind generation during periods of low demand, especially in Scotland, where much of the UK’s onshore wind capacity is located.
However, the UK can overcome these challenges with more offshore projects and increased onshore capacity with reliable financial backing. By 2030, wind can inevitably lead the UK’s transition to a low-carbon grid, supporting its renewable energy goals.
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